Eye On The Market

Rear Window

Over the last year, the Eye on the Market included views on sectors, rates and currencies. For this back-to-school piece, I prepared a rear window post-mortem on each. W

The Year of the Trojan Fire Horse

The Year of the Trojan Fire Horse: China’s imbalanced economy and unrelenting mercantilism While there’s plenty of evidence to support Stephen Roach’s thesis of unsustai

The Summer I Turned Pretty

I mean pretty as an adverb, as in pretty cautious on cyber risks, open and closed weight challenges to the frontier labs seeking to go public and some market technicals r

Semiquincententacles

Semiquincententacles: The US grip on markets on the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence Behold the Aquilaceph, half-bald eagle and half-octopus. On the

Home Alone: inflation and the new Fed chair; investing in China’s AI ecosystem; Prediction markets

The new Fed chair Kevin Warsh, like Kevin McCallister in Home Alone, faces a lonely vigil: survive until the adults get home again. The latest on inflation, rising Treasu

Abandon Ship!

Abandon Ship! Topics: midterm elections, Spring thaw in US economic data, Strait of Hormuz oil rationing timeline, AI and data center update, Gulf State pipe dream, Congr

Salem’s Lot: Gulf War update; the Purge of senior US military officers; a US fossil fuel reliance fever dream

Salem’s Lot: an update on the Gulf War. Topics include international commodity price pass-throughs to the US, the limits of energy independence, Gulf temperatures and the

Fighting Words: The Energy Transition in 2026

Fighting Words. This year we look at energy arguments, battles and debates: the impact of data centers on power prices, the cost of solar plus storage as baseload power,

Supply and The Mam

New York City now has one of the tightest housing markets since 1960. Watch the video

Eye on the Market Outlook 2026: Smothering Heights

In this year’s EOTM Outlook by Michael Cembalest, we focus on four risks: US power generation constraints, China on its own, Taiwan and hyperscaler profits. View video h

The Deep End: 2025 Alternative Investments Review

On the surface not much has changed since our last review two years ago. View video here

The winter of our discontent: generative AI disrupts the entertainment industry content moat

While the prior decade was defined by disruption in content distribution, the next decade will be defined by disruption in content creation, augmented by generative AI. T

Mad Libs: just fill in the blanks

Mad Libs. This piece is not about how mad liberals are at the administration, although the latest polling data indicates that it could be. Instead, it’s a fill-in-the-bla

The Blob: Capital, China, Chips, Chicago and Chilliwack

In this piece, we look at the AI and data center takeover, and the OpenAI-Oracle deal; the US government equity investment in Intel, the origins of TSMC and how many coun

Fair Shakes

Assessing US earnings and economic trends during one of the broadest policy shifts since FDR; partisan redistricting, the Supreme Court, the Census and the balance in the

Summer mailbag

Every summer, I answer questions from the Eye on the Market client mailbag. View video here

Time Flies: Twenty Years of Eye on the Market

Take a look back at 30 standout insights which are just as relevant for the future as they were for the past. Explore our insights

"OK Boomer" on stablecoins, profits, tax cuts vs tariffs and presidential break-ups

Throughout history, non-FDIC insured short-term dollar denominated debt redeemable at par on demand has been prone to runs, whether in money market funds, repos or uninsu

Chicken Hawks: a quick note on the US budget reconciliation bill

A brief note on the debt and deficit impacts of the House budget reconciliation bill, Henery Hawk and Foghorn Leghorn. View video here

Back to our Regularly Scheduled Programming

With some kind of tariff equilibrium possibly within reach, we return to some regularly scheduled programming: artificial intelligence and language models which were the