Super-Macro Management

What Now for Bonds?

France's deficit is heading for 5.4% this year, the government's plan to cut it to 5% is unlikely to survive the National Assembly, and a presidential election lands in A

Get Used to a 5-Handle on Bonds

The 30 year Treasury yield traded above 5.5% this morning. The 10 year is now clean through 5%, a level that held as a ceiling for two years. Whatever was capping yields

The Fed's About to Outpace Everyone

The Fed hiked 25 basis points last week, and the market's answer was to rally. The S&P is up 3.5% since the meeting, the Nasdaq 4.5%. Retail sales control group spending

Buybacks Fail to Slow Bond Bloodbath | ft. Andy Constan of Damped Spring Advisors

Oil is up roughly 12% over the past week, hitting a US economy already at full capacity, 4.1% unemployment and payrolls averaging 106,000 a month. That's the kind of shoc

Bonds are a Trap

There is a generation of bond traders who have never seen yields this high, levels they would have dreamt of five years ago. The US deficit is running at 5.5 to 6% of GDP

Warsh just backed himself into a corner

US interest costs have quietly climbed to around 18% of tax revenues, up from about 5% not long ago. At Jackson Hole, Fed chair Kevin Warsh delivered what looked like a n

Bessent’s Intervention Arsenal Lacks Firepower

The US national debt passed $40 trillion last week. Scott Bessent's response was to double the Treasury's bond buybacks, from $2 billion a time to $4 billion. Against $5.

Sovereign Bonds Can't Catch a Break

The data all pointed one way last week. Payrolls missed, CPI and PPI came in benign, retail sales underwhelmed across every single aggregate. Sovereign bonds caught a bid

The Yen Intervention Is Smoke and Mirrors

US payrolls fell by 23,000 in the latest print, with over 100,000 of downward revisions to the previous two months — and yet Treasury yields climbed. When bond markets ra

Navigating the Financial Storm: Insights on the S&P and Economic Data

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Tariffs and Their Impact: A Deep Dive into Economic Uncertainty

In this episode of the Super Macro podcast, hosts Elvis and Jonny Matthews delve into the pressing topic of tariffs and their impact on the economy. Jonny, who has been s

Navigating 2025: Economic Insights and Market Predictions | Episode 11

In this episode of the Super Macro podcast, hosts Elvis and Jonny Matthews return after a brief hiatus to discuss economic projections for 2025. Johnny emphasises his con

The Resilient US Economy: Consumer Spending and Corporate Profits | Episode 10

In this episode of the Super Macro podcast, hosts Elvis and Jonny Matthews dive into the recent economic performance of Ireland, discussing the optimistic outlook for the

Defending the No-Recession Stance - Episode 9

In this episode of the Super Macro podcast, hosts Elvis and Jonny Matthews delve into the current market dynamics and the prevailing economic outlook. Jonny stands firm i

What Recession?!! - Episode 8

In this episode of the Super Macro Podcast, hosts Jonny Matthews and Elvis delve into the current market dynamics and the looming recession narrative. Jonny shares insigh

Financial Conditions and Market Reactions: A Conversation with Andy Constan - Episode 7

In this episode, Jonny Matthews and Elvis discuss the recent weak CPI print and its implications on the economy. They analyze the job market, highlighting the contrast

The S&P's Resilience Amid Softening US Economic Data - Episode 6

On this episode of Super Macro, Elvis and Jonny discuss the recent subpar economic data in the United States and its implications for Fed policy. They analyze charts show

Joseph Wang's Take on Central Banking and Market Predictions - Episode 5

In this episode of the Super Macro Podcast, hosts Elvis and Jonny Matthews are joined by special guest Joseph Wang, also known as the Fed guy. Joseph, a former senior t

Analyzing the US Labor Market and Fed's Rate Cut Dilemma - Episode 4

In this episode of The Super Macro Management podcast, Elvis and Jonny Matthews dive into the US labor market and the potential for rate cuts. They analyze the recent p

Has the Fed Lost the Plot on Inflation? - Episode 3

In this episode of Super Macro Podcast 3, Elvis and Jonny dive into the topic of whether the Fed has lost the plot on inflation. They discuss the Fed's recent decisions