Excess Returns

Bearish Into November. Room to Run After: Why Dan Niles Is Watching Hyperscaler Credit Default Swaps

Dan Niles joins Excess Returns to explain why he believes AI is a genuine industrial revolution and a bubble at the same time, with significant opportunity still ahead bu

The Fed Credibility Narrative Has Turned | Ben Hunt on AI, the Consumer and Financial Repression

Ben Hunt joins Matt Zeigler to explain why damaged Fed and Treasury credibility could matter just as four major risks converge across private credit, AI financing, oil an

Sticky Inflation. Cheap Volatility. A Less Predictable Fed. Why Aren’t Markets More Worried?

This month on Last Call, Kevin Muir, Aahan Menon, Ben Hunt and Brent Kochuba break down the market through four lenses: macro, inflation data, narrative and options posit

The Profits Come Now. The Costs Come Later. Kevin Muir on Whether AI Earnings Are the Bubble

Kevin Muir of The MacroTourist joins Matt Zeigler to break down the bond market, Scott Bessent's Treasury buybacks, the Treasury General Account, AI-driven earnings growt

Private Equity Chased Software. Big Tech Is Chasing AI. Dan Rasmussen on If They Are Making the Same Mistake Twice

Dan Rasmussen, founder and managing partner of Verdad Advisers and author of The Humble Investor, joins Kai Wu to examine the unraveling of private equity, the rise of pr

Only 2.7% Beat the S&P for 20 Years | Ian Cassel on What Elite Stock Pickers Do Differently

Ian Cassel, founder of MicroCapClub and author of Stock Picker, joins Matt Zeigler to break down the mindset, temperament and core skills required to outperform as an act

The Rally is Broadening. The Earnings Growth Isn't. Liz Ann Sonders on Which Breaks First

Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, joins us to explain why today's economy and stock market are increasingly defined by rotation, instability

We Asked Andy Constan What Happens If AI Funding Breaks Before the Thesis — And if Warsh Blinks

Andy Constan is back on First Principles to explain why record stock prices, rising long-term Treasury yields and sticky inflation can all coexist, and why the next major

We Asked Value Legend Bob Robotti Why the Real AI Trade Isn't AI — And Why Passive Helps Stock Pickers

Bob Robotti, founder and CIO of Robotti & Company, joins Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to explain why bottom-up value investing may be entering one of its best oppo

Jim Paulsen Sees a Growth Scare Coming | The 34 Charts That Make Him Cautious

In this episode of The Jim Paulsen Show, Jim explains why weakening labor data, softening inflation, and lagged policy tightening could shift markets from inflation fears

We Asked T. Rowe's $8 Billion Tech Manager Why We Are in 1998 — And Why Software Is in Trouble

T. Rowe Price technology portfolio manager Dom Rizzo joins Jack Forehand and Kai Wu to break down the AI investment cycle, hyperscaler capital spending, semiconductor dem

David Rosenberg and Rich Bernstein on What Ends the AI Trade — And What They Own Instead

Richard Bernstein and David Rosenberg reunite to debate the Federal Reserve, inflation, the AI investment boom, market bubbles, gold and the case for international divers

4% Inflation. Stretched Valuations. Why Is the Market Still Risk-On? | Tian Yang

Tian Yang, head of research at Variant Perception and portfolio manager of the VPX ETF, explains how investors can use adaptive leading indicators, capital cycle analysis

The Biggest Leak in Finance | Brent Donnelly on Why You're Probably Too Bearish

Brent Donnelly joins Matt Zeigler to explain how professional traders build a durable edge through risk management, trading psychology, probabilistic thinking, and creati

A $20B Blowup. A War-Sized AI Bet. Was the Bottom Just a Margin Call? | Last Call

On this episode of our new market wrap show Last Call, we examine the hidden rotation beneath calm stock market indexes, including sharp AI and semiconductor volatility,

A War-Sized AI Bet. Private Credit Went All In. Will the Government End Up Owning It?

We are excited to announce the launch of a new podcast, Why Am I Reading This Now? with Ben Hunt. Stories and narratives are increasingly shaping markets, and Ben and his

He Called It the Worst Chart Imaginable. Then He Bought It | Rupert Mitchell on Cracks in the Mag 7

Rupert Mitchell of Blind Squirrel Macro joins Matt Zeigler to explain how surging AI capital spending, mega-cap share issuance and expensive U.S. technology stocks could

The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Robert Hagstrom on What Wall Street Gets Wrong About Risk

On the latest 100 Year Thinkers, Robert Hagstrom joins Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to revisit the 25th anniversary edition of The Warren Buffett Portfolio and exp

Even God Would Be Fired | Wes Gray on Bubbles, AI Valuations and Why Size Was Never the Edge

Wes Gray joins us to explain how factor investors should think about high market valuations, S&P 500 concentration, value investing, small caps, artificial intelligence a

Not a Time for Big Bets | Aahan Menon on What 60 Years of Regime Data Says About Today’s Market

Aahan Menon, founder of Prometheus Research, joins Jack Forehand to explain what systematic macro data says about economic growth, inflation, Federal Reserve policy, oil