The Macro Trading Floor

On Bessent, Gold & Idiosyncratic Trades

Alf and Brent are back to discuss the Bessent buyback plan and its impact on markets. The duo focuses on gold, the long-end and the USD as potential release valves. The d

On Sizing Options, The Fed and The JPY

In this episode, Alf and Brent talk about the Fed's likely reaction function to incoming data and the Bessent/Japan accord on the JPY. The duo then discusses one of the t

Warsh Woke Up The Bond Vigilantes

Alf and Brent discuss the significant market reaction to Warsh's press conference: the Fed handed over the keys to the bond market, and now Bond Vigilantes are in charge

The Orange Variable

Brent and Alf discuss the n-th injection of the Orange Variable in markets: Trump decided to escalate again with Iran, and even suggested the ceasefire might be over alto

The Rebasement Trade

Alf and Brent discuss the major market shifts since the Warsh press conference. Is this a big macro shift or just a mini-trend that will ultimately slow down or even reve

The Inflation Ghost, Gold and Options

To reach out to Alf: alf@palinurocapital.com (or Alfonso Peccatiello on BBG) To reach out to Brent: bdonnelly@spectramarkets.com (or Brent Donnelly on BBG) In this epis

Process, Process, Process

To reach out to Alf: alf@palinurocapital.com (or Alfonso Peccatiello on BBG) To reach out to Brent: bdonnelly@spectramarkets.com (or Brent Donnelly on BBG) In this epis

Macro Investing In A Post-Hormuz World

To reach out to Alf: alf@palinurocapital.com To reach out to Brent: bdonnelly@spectramarkets.com Alf and Brent refresh their macro and trading frameworks on the basis o

New All-Time Highs Are Here: Now What?

To reach out to Alf: alf@palinurocapital.com To reach out to Brent: bdonnelly@spectramarkets.com Alf and Brent discuss the framework for an Iran-US deal, and how to app

Frameworks To Trade The Hormuz Crisis

To reach out to Alf: alf@palinurocapital.com To reach out to Brent: bdonnelly@spectramarkets.com Alf and Brent are back discussing frameworks to approach this market as

How To Trade Macro In A War

Alf and Brent reflect on correlations converging to 1 across asset classes, risk management practices in macro deleveraging events, and a game theory approach to how the

Hormuz & The Terms of Trade Shock

Alf and Brent discuss the terms of trade shock that the de-facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz is causing. The duo walk through scenarios and probabilities and what fra

The New Fed vs The Good Old Bond Market

To reach out to Alf and Brent, ping them on BBG (Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly). In this episode, Alf and Brent discuss how the appointment of the new Fed Chair

US Dollar Hedging: A Real Risk or Just a Narrative?

To reach out to Alf and Brent, ping them on BBG (Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly). In this episode, Alf and Brent reflect on the April-2025-like price action whic

Japanese Macro Tails

To reach out to Alf and Brent, ping them on BBG (Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly). In this episode, Alf and Brent focus the discussion on Japanese short-term and

The Everything SuperCycle?

To reach out to Alf and Brent, ping them on BBG (Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly). In the first TMTF episode of 2026, Alf and Brent discuss every single macro ass

More Pain Ahead Or Buy The Dip?

The Nasdaq has now sold off nearly 10% from the highs, and the pain in momentum assets is even more severe. Alf and Brent discuss whether there are reasons to believe m

''Run It Hot'': The Comeback?

Alf and Brent discuss the resurgence of the ''run it hot'' trade: Trump floating around new fiscal stimulus and government reopening odds seem to have revived the trade.

We Have A Deal: Now What?

Alf and Brent discuss the market reaction to the ''deal'' between Trump and Xi: what happens next? The duo also covers the Fed and BoJ decisions, the state of the AI tr

Momentum Shock: What Next For Markets?

Have a great macro trade idea for Alf and Brent to discuss on the show? Send your trade idea here: ⁠TMTF Trade Of The Week Alf and Brent discuss the vicious momentum unw