The Macro Trading Floor

The Credit Market Boogeyman

Alf and Brent discuss how developments in credit markets are rattling investors from France to the state of the AI credit cycle. The duo covers the implications for equit

AI Bubble Popping Or A Boring Pullback?

Alf and Brent are back on the show to discuss the recent price action in AI stocks which is also heavily impacting the bond market. Is the AI bubble popping? Are credit f

6% Yields Next & Will Stonks Handle It?

Alf and Brent discuss the relentless bond yield and USD move. Can we get to 6% yields in the US, or even higher? And will stonks be able to handle it?

Macro Blowups Everywhere - What Now?

Alf and Brent are back to discuss the various macro blowups we are witnessing simultaneously: French spreads, front-end of the bond market, mortgage-backed securities, EM

On Bessent, Gold & Idiosyncratic Trades

Alf and Brent are back to discuss the Bessent buyback plan and its impact on markets. The duo focuses on gold, the long-end and the USD as potential release valves. The d

On Sizing Options, The Fed and The JPY

In this episode, Alf and Brent talk about the Fed's likely reaction function to incoming data and the Bessent/Japan accord on the JPY. The duo then discusses one of the t

Warsh Woke Up The Bond Vigilantes

Alf and Brent discuss the significant market reaction to Warsh's press conference: the Fed handed over the keys to the bond market, and now Bond Vigilantes are in charge

The Orange Variable

Brent and Alf discuss the n-th injection of the Orange Variable in markets: Trump decided to escalate again with Iran, and even suggested the ceasefire might be over alto

The Rebasement Trade

Alf and Brent discuss the major market shifts since the Warsh press conference. Is this a big macro shift or just a mini-trend that will ultimately slow down or even reve

The Inflation Ghost, Gold and Options

To reach out to Alf: alf@palinurocapital.com (or Alfonso Peccatiello on BBG) To reach out to Brent: bdonnelly@spectramarkets.com (or Brent Donnelly on BBG) In this epis

Process, Process, Process

To reach out to Alf: alf@palinurocapital.com (or Alfonso Peccatiello on BBG) To reach out to Brent: bdonnelly@spectramarkets.com (or Brent Donnelly on BBG) In this epis

Macro Investing In A Post-Hormuz World

To reach out to Alf: alf@palinurocapital.com To reach out to Brent: bdonnelly@spectramarkets.com Alf and Brent refresh their macro and trading frameworks on the basis o

New All-Time Highs Are Here: Now What?

To reach out to Alf: alf@palinurocapital.com To reach out to Brent: bdonnelly@spectramarkets.com Alf and Brent discuss the framework for an Iran-US deal, and how to app

Frameworks To Trade The Hormuz Crisis

To reach out to Alf: alf@palinurocapital.com To reach out to Brent: bdonnelly@spectramarkets.com Alf and Brent are back discussing frameworks to approach this market as

How To Trade Macro In A War

Alf and Brent reflect on correlations converging to 1 across asset classes, risk management practices in macro deleveraging events, and a game theory approach to how the

Hormuz & The Terms of Trade Shock

Alf and Brent discuss the terms of trade shock that the de-facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz is causing. The duo walk through scenarios and probabilities and what fra

The New Fed vs The Good Old Bond Market

To reach out to Alf and Brent, ping them on BBG (Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly). In this episode, Alf and Brent discuss how the appointment of the new Fed Chair

US Dollar Hedging: A Real Risk or Just a Narrative?

To reach out to Alf and Brent, ping them on BBG (Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly). In this episode, Alf and Brent reflect on the April-2025-like price action whic

Japanese Macro Tails

To reach out to Alf and Brent, ping them on BBG (Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly). In this episode, Alf and Brent focus the discussion on Japanese short-term and

The Everything SuperCycle?

To reach out to Alf and Brent, ping them on BBG (Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly). In the first TMTF episode of 2026, Alf and Brent discuss every single macro ass