Van Hesser's 3 Things in Credit - A KBRA Podcast

Uncertainty Returns, The Forward Look, and Leveraged Finance Trends

This week, our 3 Things are: Uncertainty returns. That improved visibility we enjoyed in 2H 2025 has diminished. The Forward Look. Our latest quarterly publication dimen

The Long End, Easy Financial Conditions, and Retailer Week

This week, our 3 Things are: The long end. What’s known, what’s changing. Easy financial conditions. What’s all this concern about rates???  Retailer week. Housing in fo

Caterpillar Earnings, Data Center Dimensions, and Bonds as a Hedge

This week, our 3 Things are: Caterpillar earnings. A blowout, but what does it say about the AI story? Data center dimensions. Driver of the broadening out.  Bonds as a

Q2 GDP, Consumer Resilience, and Recalculating Inflation

This week, our 3 Things are: Q2 GDP. It’s better than the headline, but… . Consumer resilience. Visa and Capital One provide views across the consumer landscape.  Recalc

Oil vs. Distillates, Rising Uncertainty, and U.S. Exceptionalism

This week, our 3 Things are: Oil vs. distillates. Time to focus on what actually drives the economy. Rising uncertainty. After a welcome reprieve, it’s back. U.S. except

AI Debt Issuance, Updating the Fed, and Big Bank Credit Color.

This week, our 3 Things are: AI debt issuance. Just how big is it? Updating the Fed. Challenging conventional thinking is a good thing. Big bank credit color. The latest

Jobs’ Weakness, Q2 Earnings, and Robust Consumer Spend. 

This week, our 3 Things are: Jobs’ weakness. The June report confirms all is not well. Q2 earnings. We’re set up for a strong quarter.    Robust  consumer spend. So says

Rates vs. Oil, Critical Thresholds, and REITs vs. BDCs.

This week, our 3 Things are: Rates vs. oil. There’s been a breakdown in the relationship. Critical thresholds. We’re highlighting three worth watching.    REITs vs. BDCs

Deflation, Credit Loss Cycle, and CCC Signal.

This week, our 3 Things are: Deflation. It’s a check on the market’s most significant near-term risk. Credit loss cycle. Is it upon us? CCC signal. What the weakest cred

Hyperscaler Debt Issuance, Next-Wave Growth, and Industrial Renaissance 

This week, our 3 Things are: Hyperscaler debt issuance. Funding the AI build-out goes global. Next-wave growth. Beyond AI and wealthy household spending, these forces wi

Waller Redirect, Income Slowdown, and 2026 Default Forecasts.

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Waller redirect. One of the Fed’s thought leaders says risks have changed. We’ll dig into what he’s seeing. 2. Income slowdown. The raw

Rates’ Risk, Stock vs. Bond Volatility, and Consumer Color. 

This week, our 3 Things are: Rates’ risk. What does it mean for credit? Stock vs. bond volatility. Something has to give.   Consumer color. We canvas bellwether transc

Jobs Rebound, Shock Watch, and Historic Uncertainty.

This week, our 3 Things are: Jobs rebound. Have we reached an inflection point? Shock watch. Inflation, energy, and food are all set to move the wrong way. Is this pric

Changing Narratives, Earnings Surge, and Nonlinear Oil Move

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Changing narratives. Better visibility and perspective on issues that drove a selloff in risk earlier this spring. 2. Earnings surge. It

What We’re Watching, Defaults Two Ways, and Oil Price Perspective

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. What we’re watching. Fresh off the press from our Forward Look publication. 2. Defaults two ways. We compare market prices to the bottom

Earnings Growth, Bank Exposure to Nonbanks, and Constructive Pessimism

This week, our 3 Things are: Earnings growth. One observer describes earnings growth as “soaring.” Is that right?Bank exposure to nonbanks. Should we be worried about th

Growth Shock vs. Inflation Shock, Big Bank Credit Color, and IMF Sours

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Growth shock vs. inflation shock. What’s the biggest risk? 2. Big bank credit color. Real-time read on credit from the largest lenders.

Resiliency, Dimon on Credit, Consumer Trends

This week, our 3 Things are: Resiliency. The U.S. economy has demonstrated that in spades. But is it sustainable? Dimon on credit. Getting past the headlines. Consumer

Shock Risk, Loan Growth Surge, and Earnings Relief

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Shock risk. Risk is rising, but will credit reprice? 2. Loan growth surge. Where did that come from? 3. Earnings relief. Good news is o

Earnings vs. Oil, Systemic Leverage, and Stagflation

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Earnings vs. oil. We have an interesting comparison between the two. 2. Systemic leverage. Don’t lose sight of where we stand. 3. Stagf