The Spillover

Brazil’s Runoff Election Is a Close Race Between Lula and Bolsonaro

Brazil’s runoff is a dead heat, but markets are betting that Flávio Bolsonaro, son of ex-President Jair Bolsonaro, will win and finally rein in the country’s debt. This w

Lame Ducks, Black Swans, and the 2026 Midterm Elections

With the 2026 U.S. midterm elections just weeks away, Rebecca Patterson and Veda Partners Cofounder Henrietta Treyz discuss an impending confrontation over the debt ceili

What We Got Right (and Wrong) This Year

This week on The Spillover, hosts Sebastian Mallaby and Rebecca Patterson unpack what they got right—and wrong—in their forecasts over the course of the year so far, cove

Central Banks in a Bind + Could AI Replace the FOMC?

This week on The Spillover, hosts Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby are joined by Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, to di

Why Won’t Europe Do More For Ukraine? + The Rise of Pro-Russia Populism

This week on The Spillover, hosts Sebastian Mallaby and Rebecca Patterson sit down with author and historian Anne Applebaum to discuss Europe, the ongoing war in Ukraine,

Nvidia Bets Big on Hugging Face + Sebastian Sashimi + AI-Powered Toothbrushes

This week, hosts Sebastian Mallaby and Rebecca Patterson unpack Nvidia’s deal to purchase Hugging Face, the leading platform for open-weight AI models. The acquisition, t

Can the U.S. ‘Grow’ Its Way Out of Debt? + Taxing Wealth in the Age of AI

This week, host Rebecca Patterson speaks with Natasha Sarin, law professor and cofounder of the Yale Budget Lab, to unpack Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s claim that t

The U.S. Buys Stake in a Venezuelan Oil Company + Why Efficiency Is the Real Path to Energy Security

This week, host Rebecca Patterson sits down with energy and climate expert Vijay Vaitheeswaran to discuss the U.S. government's acquisition of 35 percent equity stake in

Could the AI Debt Problem Create the Next Financial Crisis?

The financing behind the AI boom has grown so large that treasury bond yields are approaching levels not seen since the leadup to the 2008 financial crisis. But is the ri

The Hosts Pick a Global AI Winner + The Advanced Economy Deployment Problem + The Question Even the Experts Can't Answer

Artificial intelligence has become the biggest variable in the U.S. economy, but is the country really positioned to win the global race for economic dominance in AI? Thi

How China Is Quietly Winning the Iran War Energy Crisis

Five months of war in Iran have completely reshaped energy markets. This week, the Baker Institute’s Kristian Coates Ulrichsen joins Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Malla

Spillover Summer Reading: The Best Books on Forecasting, Silicon Valley, and the Future

In this episode of The Spillover, Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby swap summer reading recommendations, including fiction and nonfiction picks covering American th

Jordan Schneider Thinks the Real AI Race Is About Compute, Not Models

In this episode of The Spillover, host Sebastian Mallaby sits down with Jordan Schneider, founder and editor-in-chief of the ChinaTalk podcast and newsletter, to discuss

The AI Trilemma + Open-Weight Proliferation + the “Singularity Delusion”

In this episode, The Spillover’s Sebastian Mallaby is hosted by Dan Kurtz-Phelan, editor of Foreign Affairs, to discuss the “AI trilemma”—the challenge U.S. policymakers

Rahm Emanuel Talks Israel, Midterm Elections, and the Democratic Party

Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby are joined by Rahm Emanuel, who served as President Bill Clinton’s political strategist, President Barack Obama’s first White Hous

Washington Considers a Stake in OpenAI + Altman’s Gambit + America, Inc.

On this episode of The Spillover, Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby, joined by CFR expert Jonathan Hillman, examine the U.S. government's rapidly growing portfolio

Gold vs. Bitcoin Showdown

Cohosts Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby stage a friendly debate over two so-called dollar alternatives—gold and bitcoin—weighing whether either has truly earned i

Two Brits Unpack America’s 250th Birthday + The Cultural Civil War

America’s 250th birthday is the talk of the nation. But the more important story might be what the milestone reveals about the fragile bargain between democracy and marke

What Will the Fed Become Under Chair Kevin Warsh? + Greenspan's Legacy

In this episode of The Spillover, host Rebecca Patterson and former Federal Reserve Vice Chair Roger W. Ferguson Jr. reflect on the legacy of recently deceased former Fed

"A Job Beats a Handout" + Why the World Bank Is Betting Everything on Employment

In this episode of The Spillover, host Sebastian Mallaby and CFR President Michael Froman speak with former U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and World Bank President