Simply Put

Robin Wigglesworth on How AI Investment Echoes the 1800s Railroad Boom

The prosperity promised by railroads in the 1800s caused unprecedented investment in the United States that eventually led to the Panic of 1873, the steepest downturn in

Katherine Loughead on the State of State Tax Policy

As the pandemic-era shocks of federal stimulus and domestic migration fade, some states are looking for new taxes to increase revenue while others consider tax cuts to ad

SPECIAL PODCAST: Brad Setser on the Efficacy of Recent Treasury Interventions

The recent increase in Treasury’s buyback operations will remove long-term USTs from the market using new short-term debt or cash from the Treasury General Account. Secre

John Graham on How CFOs are (and are not) Implementing AI

The speed and magnitude of AI implementation at the firm level will help determine its overall impact on growth, productivity, and employment. Survey evidence shows CFOs’

Narayana Kocherlakota on Optimal Fed Communication

Chair Warsh has communicated very little at his first two press conferences, aiming to increase policy flexibility and free markets to “play the ball, not the referee.” T

The Lifetime Model of Inflation Expectations according to Ulrike Malmendier and Stefan Nagel

Regardless of the Fed’s commitment to restoring price stability, past price increases have had a lasting impression on households and businesses after five years of above

Teresa Walsh on the Cybersecurity Risks Facing the Financial Sector

Even as Artificial Intelligence enhances productivity, it is also increasing cybersecurity vulnerabilities across the financial industry. New technologies like Anthropic’

Michelle Bockmann on Shipping Insurance in the Strait of Hormuz

The cost of shipping insurance in the Strait of Hormuz has surged over the last four months. Even after the US and Iran lifted their mutual blockade last week, insurers a

Mike Ashton on How the Market Expresses Inflation Expectations

Investors often use inflation swaps and breakevens — the difference in yields between nominal Treasuries and TIPS — to deduce market participants’ inflation expectations.

Alexis Maxwell on How Rising Fertilizer Costs Drive Food Inflation

The Strait of Hormuz’s closure has driven up prices for fertilizer and diesel, two inputs essential for agricultural production. Considering how farmers pre-buy fertilize

Emanuel Mönch on the Post-Pandemic Term Premium

The term premium — investors’ compensation for holding longer-term Treasuries instead of T-bills — fluctuates with inflation uncertainty, federal deficit worries, and cen

Stan Veuger on the Economic Risks of Population Decline

Changes in foreign migration caused US population growth to slow last year and potentially turn negative in 2026. Federal programs and private debt markets structured aro

Jeff Lacker on Shrinking the Fed’s Balance Sheet

The Fed’s balance sheet has swelled from $900 billion in 2008 to just under $7 trillion in April 2026. Policymakers bought up securities to support the economy during the

SPECIAL PODCAST: Rachel Ziemba on the Strait of Hormuz

The recently announced two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran is giving investors hope that traffic will normalize soon in the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway tha

Fabio Natalucci on the Rise and Risks of Private Credit

Private credit has outgrown its original niche of lending to middle-market firms using funds from institutional investors with long time horizons. Rising participation fr

Chad Syverson on the Causes and Effects of a Productivity Boom

AI optimism is fueling expectations for a sustained post-pandemic productivity surge that supports robust economic growth and permits easier Fed policy. However, history

Joe Kane on the Infrastructure Demands of AI Data Centers

As investment into Artificial Intelligence continues to grow, construction of AI data centers is significantly increasing the demand for electricity, water, and land use

Bill Nelson on the Withering Fed Funds Market

The Federal Reserve influences financial conditions through the federal funds market, a private market consisting of unsecured overnight interbank transactions. As the lo

George Pearkes on Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair

President Trump has nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair later this year. Warsh called for “regime change” at the Fed last year

Lisa Simon on the Labor Market Impacts of AI

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is poised to disrupt the labor market by replacing certain tasks and enhancing the productivity of others. Although these changes could event