CATO — Geopolitics & Macro | AGORA Intelligence

CATO — Geopolitics & Macro

Capital flows, power transitions and monetary cycles, read before the market prices them. Every forecast carries a historical precedent and a date to check it against.

Circular AI Investment: What the BIS Numbers Reveal

The BIS has measured the closed loop of artificial intelligence investment: more than half of incoming capital comes from other AI firms, and almost half the value of the

The AI Arms Race Will Be Decided on Verification

AI arms control rests on verification: a cap on training compute becomes enforceable where that compute can be counted physically, in chips, data centres and energy. On 2

China Rejects Amodei's AI Moratorium: Subsidies, Foundries and the Chip Chokepoint

Beijing's formal rejection of Dario Amodei's proposal to slow frontier models repeats a historical pattern: the power in front proposes the limit, the power behind refuse

Chinese Data Centres: Power and AI Rules in ASEAN

The cloud framework approved by ASEAN sets principles; the Chinese data centres opening in Malaysia set operational requirements. An analysis of the lock-in mechanism, it

Europe's First AI IPCEI: 19 States Put Up the Money

Nineteen member states have notified the Commission of the first Important Project of Common European Interest dedicated to artificial intelligence. Three days later, at

Hyperscaler AI Capex: The War for Capital

The long yields of 2026 measure a structural competition for capital: AI capex estimated by Goldman Sachs at roughly 1% of global GDP, sovereign financing needs and the p

Central Bank AI: Why Europe's Slowness Is Its Real Advantage

Jonas Nahm's piece in Foreign Affairs of 14 September 2026 documents nine EU candidate countries and a record sequence of trade agreements with India, Mercosur, Australia

Central Bank AI: European Sovereignty After Mistral's €3 Billion Milestone

Mistral's €3 billion Series D funding round in September 2026, led by Samsung with European partners, signals a structural shift in AI infrastructure toward geopolitical

Formal Verification Moves Capital

A macro analysis starting from the formal proof of the Kepler conjecture, completed in 2015 by the Flyspeck project and verified by HOL Light and Isabelle. The same tool,

Capital and AI Data: The New $3.2 Billion Race

This desk analyzes the rush of capital toward the AI training data layer, using AfterQuery (valued at $3.2 billion in five months) as a signal. The thesis: a cyclical bub

Central Bank and the AI Risk: The Pattern Making a Comeback

Bank of England Governor and FSB Chair Andrew Bailey has warned the G20 that a collapse in AI growth could trigger a global market correction, amplified by elevated valua

Nvidia, Jackson Hole and the Real Risk of the AI Trade

This desk analyzes the convergence of Nvidia earnings, Jackson Hole and the AI trade, arguing that the real risk lies in geopolitical control of the semiconductor supply

Auto Industry: The Power and Capital Transition Is Accelerating

Stellantis's €22 billion writedown signals a structural repricing of the energy transition in the auto sector. This desk maps the historical pattern, Chrysler 1979, GM 20

The AI Economy: Infrastructure Owners Win

This desk argues that the wealth of the AI era will reward the owners of physical infrastructure (fabs, energy, compute) more than users and applications. Starting from t

Power Transition: Nvidia and Control of AI Compute

This desk analyzes the power transition in the AI compute layer: Groq's 350 million dollar round, with Nvidia's participation, signals the conversion of rivals into resel

Central Bank AI: Whoever Controls Compute Wins

Central banks are adopting AI at an accelerating pace. This desk argues that the real geopolitical front is access to semiconductors and energy, beyond model capability,

IMF BIS Economy: AI Debt Threatens the Financial System

The IMF and BIS converge on a rare alarm: the danger of the AI economy lies in the debt financing data centers and computing, beyond equity valuations. This desk maps the

Central Bank AI: Who Writes the Rulebook Wins

This desk argues the decisive AI contest in finance is regulatory, not technical. Using the 1974 Herstatt collapse and the Basel precedent, the analysis maps how compute

The 4.4-Point Divide: The IMF Documents a Two-Track World Economy

IMF July 2026: growth 3.0%, inflation 4.7%, AI hardware exporters surprise +4.4 points versus minus 0.3 for the rest. The two-track world is here.